美国物价2024年1月数据点评：美国通胀的“双重支撑”

Group 1: Inflation Overview - Current US inflation is supported by a dual factor of real estate and labor market supply-demand gaps, making it difficult to return to 2% in the short term[7] - January CPI year-on-year growth was 3.1%, exceeding market expectations of 2.9%[20] - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 3.9%, also above the expected 3.7%[20] Group 2: Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices fell by 4.6% year-on-year, while food prices increased by 2.6%, contributing only 0.03 percentage points to total inflation[2] - Gasoline prices dropped 6.9% year-on-year, while electricity and natural gas service prices decreased by 2.0% year-on-year[13] Group 3: Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation turned negative for the first time since August 2020, with prices down 0.3% year-on-year and month-on-month[21] - Service inflation remains sticky, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, driven by strong demand and supply constraints in the labor and housing markets[22] Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, with the probability of a May rate cut dropping from 50% to 20%[14] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for 2024 decreased from 5.5 times (135 basis points) to 3.5 times (90 basis points)[14]