泽璟制药首次覆盖报告：创新龙头潜力初显，差异化管线多点开花

Investment Rating - First coverage with an "Overweight" rating [3] - Target price set at 60.39 CNY per share based on DCF valuation [3] Core Views - Zai Lab focuses on unmet clinical needs with a differentiated R&D pipeline, entering a harvest period [3] - Revenue forecast for 2023-2025: 387M, 936M, and 1,702M CNY, with YoY growth of +28%, +142%, and +82% respectively [3] - Key products include Donafenib, Recombinant Human Thrombin, and Jaktinib, with significant market potential [3] Product Pipeline and Market Potential Donafenib - Approved for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and radioactive iodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) [3] - Expected peak sales of 1.17B CNY [35] - Market share projections: 20% for HCC and 25% for RAIR-DTC [35] Recombinant Human Thrombin - Approved in January 2024, with peak sales expected to reach 2.41B CNY [15][17] - Market share projection: 30% [15] Jaktinib - Under NDA review for myelofibrosis, with peak sales expected to reach 2.21B CNY [17][20] - Leading in domestic progress for alopecia areata and atopic dermatitis, with Phase III data expected in 2024 [3] Recombinant Human Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (rhTSH) - Expected to address clinical gaps in thyroid cancer treatment, with peak sales projected at 360M CNY [44] Financial Projections - Revenue growth driven by commercialization of key products [3] - Operating losses expected to narrow as products reach the market [90] - R&D expenses decreased by 14.6% YoY in 2023, reflecting reduced large-scale clinical trials [93] Valuation and Methodology - DCF valuation suggests a target price of 60.39 CNY per share [3] - Comparable company analysis using PS multiples supports a valuation of 65.06 CNY per share [46] Industry and Market Context - HCC is a major cancer type in China, with new cases expected to reach 474,000 by 2030 [35] - Surgical hemostasis market is growing, with Recombinant Human Thrombin positioned to lead market evolution [19][21] - JAK inhibitors are gaining traction in autoimmune diseases, with Jaktinib leading in multiple indications [23][25]