LI AUTO(02015)2024-02-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US) and raises the target price to $53.5, indicating a potential upside of 29% [1][12][14] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 210.3, with a potential upside of 20% [1][12][14] Core Insights - Li Auto achieved significant profit improvement in Q4 2023, turning profitable for the full year, with a projected sales target of 650,000 to 800,000 vehicles in 2024 [1][7] - The company expects to deliver 66,100 vehicles in 2024, representing a 76% year-over-year increase, driven by new model launches and increased production capacity [1][8] - Li Auto's financial health is strong, with Q4 2023 revenue of RMB 41.73 billion, a 136% year-over-year increase, and a cash reserve of RMB 103.67 billion to support ongoing R&D and business expansion [1][7][10] Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 41.73 billion, with a gross margin of 23.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-over-year [7][10] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 5.66 billion in Q4 2023, a significant increase compared to the previous year [7][10] - For 2024, revenue is projected to reach RMB 208.83 billion, with a net profit of RMB 16.73 billion, reflecting a 47% increase from previous estimates [12][13] Delivery and Production Guidance - In Q1 2024, Li Auto expects to deliver between 100,000 and 103,000 vehicles, with a target to exceed 50,000 monthly deliveries by March [8][9] - The company plans to expand its retail network to over 800 centers by the end of 2024, covering approximately 170 cities [9] Product and Market Strategy - 2024 is positioned as a significant product year for Li Auto, with multiple new models set to launch, including the MEGA and updated versions of existing models [9] - The company aims to enhance its charging network, targeting over 2,000 supercharging stations by the end of 2024 [9]