Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Ziel Home Furnishing Technology, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the market in the next six months [4][41]. Core Insights - Ziel is positioned as a leading cross-border e-commerce platform in the home furnishing sector, primarily targeting developed markets in Europe and America. The company has established three major brands: SONGMICS, VASAGLE, and FEANDREA, which account for significant portions of its revenue [5][14]. - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing robust growth, with China's export scale reaching RMB 6.6 trillion in 2022 and a projected CAGR of 16.4% from 2022 to 2025. This trend is expected to favor domestic consumer goods brands leveraging supply chain advantages [5][14]. - Ziel's competitive advantages include brand recognition, a well-established overseas logistics system, and strong supply chain management capabilities. The company has over 300,000 square meters of self-owned overseas warehouses, enhancing its logistics efficiency [5][13][32]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ziel are as follows: RMB 6,110 million in 2023, RMB 7,385 million in 2024, and RMB 8,653 million in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 21%, and 17% respectively [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 408 million in 2023, RMB 511 million in 2024, and RMB 607 million in 2025, with growth rates of 63%, 25%, and 19% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is RMB 1.02 for 2023, RMB 1.27 for 2024, and RMB 1.51 for 2025, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 22.81 in 2023 to 15.41 in 2025 [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Ziel's products are primarily sold through online platforms like Amazon, with significant revenue contributions from Europe and the United States, accounting for 56% and 41% of total revenue in 2022 [5][14]. - The company focuses on high-margin segments of the market, emphasizing brand, design, and supply chain management, which are critical barriers to entry in the home furnishing e-commerce space [24][25]. - Ziel's logistics capabilities, including a self-built overseas logistics system, provide a competitive edge by reducing costs and improving delivery times compared to traditional fulfillment methods [5][13][32].
借供应链东风，造跨境家居大品牌，海外线上“宜家”起航