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603722AKL(603722) 长城证券·2024-03-04 16:00

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company Core Insights - The demand for polyether amines is expected to grow significantly due to the rapid development of the wind power industry in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.95% from 2017 to 2025, increasing from 24,000 tons to 84,000 tons [5] - The report highlights the increasing demand for polyether amines driven by three main application areas: wind power, construction, and adhesives [3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to raise 271 million yuan for a new 20,000-ton polyether amine project in Hubei, which has already received environmental approval [11] Demand Side Analysis - The wind power sector in China is projected to see an annual increase in installed capacity of no less than 60 million kilowatts after 2025, reaching at least 800 million kilowatts by 2030 and 3 billion kilowatts by 2060 [5] - The shale gas industry is also contributing to the growth of polyether amine demand, with global shale gas production reaching 854.7 billion cubic meters in 2022, accounting for 21.2% of global natural gas production [6] Production Capacity and Developments - The report outlines various companies' production capacity developments, including: - AkzoNobel plans to build a 20,000-ton polyether amine project in Hubei [11] - Changde Technology has successfully trialed a 40,000-ton/year polyether amine production facility [11] - Other companies like Wanhua Chemical and Zhengda New Materials are also expanding their production capabilities [11] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the revenue from the optical materials segment will grow from 203 million yuan in 2023 to 232 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding gross margins increasing from 21% to 30% [36] - The overall revenue for polyether amines is expected to decline in 2023 but recover with a projected growth of 35.42% in 2024 and 42.42% in 2025 [63] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the company has a strong market position due to high barriers to entry in the polyether amine market, as new entrants face challenges in meeting quality and supply chain stability requirements [9] - The company has made significant technological advancements in the production of polyether amines, which positions it favorably against competitors [58]