Chengchang Technology(001270) 申万宏源·2024-03-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for Chengchang Technology (001270) [2] Core Views - Chengchang Technology is a rising star in the domestic phased array T/R chip industry, with strong growth potential due to its leading technology and comprehensive qualifications [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the declining prices of upstream raw materials (wafers) and the increasing demand for phased array radar in downstream markets [2] - The rapid development of satellite internet and 5G communication will further drive the company's business expansion [2] - The company's phased array T/R chip business contributes over 85% of its revenue and 80% of its gross profit, with satellite products being the largest contributor [2] Industry Analysis Phased Array Radar Market - Phased array radar is expected to replace traditional mechanical scanning radar due to its advantages in anti-reconnaissance, anti-jamming, and anti-stealth capabilities [2] - The T/R chip is a critical component of active phased array radar, and the market for T/R chips is expected to reach billions of yuan due to cost reductions and demand growth [2] - The phased array T/R chip industry has high barriers to entry, and the competitive landscape is stable, with Chengchang Technology holding a leading position [2] Satellite Internet and 5G Communication - Phased array antennas are becoming a key development direction for satellite antennas due to their small size, light weight, and low loss [2] - The market for satellite T/R chips is expected to reach approximately 70 billion yuan, with Chengchang Technology well-positioned to benefit from this growth [2] - The company has established strong relationships with mainstream 5G communication equipment manufacturers, giving it a first-mover advantage in the 5G sector [2] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 307 million yuan in 2023E to 618 million yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 41.0% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 109 million yuan in 2023E to 211 million yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 39.8% [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 77x in 2023E to 40x in 2025E, which is lower than the industry average [2] Competitive Landscape - Chengchang Technology is compared with three other companies in the satellite industry chain: Zhenlei Technology, Aerospace Intelligent Equipment, and China Satellite [2] - The company's PE ratio is lower than the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation [2] Business Segments Satellite Business - The company's satellite business is expected to generate revenue of 1.82 billion yuan in 2023E, growing to 3.54 billion yuan by 2025E, with a CAGR of 41.7% [6] - The gross margin for the satellite business is projected to remain stable at around 63.2% in 2023E, slightly decreasing to 61.4% by 2025E [6] Ground Business - The ground business is expected to grow rapidly, with revenue increasing from 0.80 billion yuan in 2023E to 1.72 billion yuan in 2025E, driven by the release of phased array radar demand [6] - The gross margin for the ground business is projected to be around 62.8% in 2023E, decreasing slightly to 60.8% by 2025E [6] Airborne, Shipborne, and Vehicle-mounted Business - The company's airborne, shipborne, and vehicle-mounted businesses are expected to grow, with revenue increasing from 0.27 billion yuan in 2023E to 0.68 billion yuan in 2025E [6] - The gross margin for these businesses is projected to decrease from 62.5% in 2023E to 57.6% by 2025E [6] Key Assumptions - The company's satellite business will continue to grow due to its strong relationships with key customers and the increasing demand for satellite internet [6] - The ground business will benefit from the release of phased array radar demand and the potential for military orders [6] - The airborne, shipborne, and vehicle-mounted businesses will grow due to the replacement of older aircraft models and the acceleration of maritime informatization [6] Market Misconceptions - The market generally underestimates the company's growth potential, but the report believes that the company's strong order book and customer relationships will drive stable growth [6] - The report also believes that the company will benefit from the rapid development of satellite internet and 5G communication, contrary to market concerns about slow business expansion [6]