Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is upgraded to "Buy" [3][8] Core Views - The report highlights that JD Group's retail business showed strong performance in Q4 2023, with total revenue reaching 306.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The retail revenue was 267.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with specific categories like powered goods growing by 6% [1][5] - The company is focusing on improving user experience and expanding market share in 2024, expecting retail GMV and revenue growth to outpace the expected 6% growth in social retail [5][8] - JD Group's non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2023 was 8.4 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.7%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [1][5] Financial Performance - The projected revenues for JD Group are 1,152.2 billion yuan in 2024 and 1,231.4 billion yuan in 2025, with adjustments of -4.3% and -4.7% respectively, mainly due to a focus on cultivating the merchant ecosystem [2][8] - The company has a projected PE ratio of approximately 8x for 2024, with an implied PE for the e-commerce business at 7x. After excluding cash and short-term investments, the PE ratio is about 3x, indicating low valuation elasticity [2][8] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][8] Shareholder Returns - In 2023, JD Group's dividend and buyback return rate was 4.7%, with a declared annual dividend of 1.2 billion, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.6% [1][5] - The company repurchased 55.5 million shares in Q4 2023, totaling about 3 billion in share repurchases until March 2027 [1][5]
2023Q4点评：零售业务表现亮眼，回购计划增强信心