Sea-23Q4业绩点评：业绩优于预期，期待2024年电商业务高质量增长

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's e-commerce platform, Shopee, demonstrated strong performance in Q4 2023, with revenue reaching $2.591 billion, a 23.2% YoY increase, surpassing consensus expectations [2] - The digital financial business underperformed in Q4 2023, with revenue of$ 470 million and adjusted EBITDA of $148 million, both below Bloomberg consensus [3] - The gaming business showed improvement in Q4 2023, with adjusted revenue of$ 456 million and adjusted EBITDA of $217 million, accounting for 47.6% of adjusted revenue [10] - The company achieved its first full-year profit since going public, with GAAP revenue of$ 13.06 billion and net income attributable to shareholders of $151 million in 2023 [9] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from$ 13.064 billion in 2023 to $17.817 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.9% [1] - Net income attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from$ 151 million in 2023 to $1.36 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 108.5% [1] - Non-GAAP net income is forecasted to rise from$ 836 million in 2023 to $1.894 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 31.4% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from$ 0.27 in 2023 to $2.41 in 2026, with a CAGR of 106.5% [1] E-commerce Business - Shopee's GMV grew 29% YoY in Q4 2023, driven by improved user experience and restrictions on TikTok in the Indonesian market [2] - The commission and advertising monetization rate increased by 0.2 percentage points QoQ to 7%, while the value-added service monetization rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% due to logistics subsidies [2] - Shopee's adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to$ 225 million in Q4 2023, better than consensus expectations [2] Digital Financial Business - Revenue grew 24.3% YoY to $470 million in Q4 2023, but fell short of Bloomberg consensus [3] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to$ 148 million in Q4 2023 from $76 million in Q4 2022, but was below expectations [3] - The business is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2024, but profitability may be negatively impacted by increased marketing expenses [3] Gaming Business - Revenue was$ 510 million in Q4 2023, below consensus expectations [10] - Adjusted revenue improved QoQ to $456 million, with adjusted EBITDA of$ 217 million, representing 47.6% of adjusted revenue [10] - Free Fire's daily active users peaked at over 100 million in February 2024, and management expects double-digit YoY growth in user base and revenue in 2024 [10] Financial Ratios - ROE is projected to increase from 2.3% in 2023 to 13.3% in 2026 [15] - Gross margin is expected to rise from 44.7% in 2023 to 50.0% in 2026 [15] - Net profit margin is forecasted to grow from 1.2% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2026 [15] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 64.5% in 2023 to 58.2% in 2026 [15] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 151.75 in 2023 to 23.98 in 2026 [1] - P/S ratio is expected to decline from 1.75 in 2023 to 1.83 in 2026 [15] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 36.73 in 2023 to 16.82 in 2026 [15]