负极龙头地位稳固，经营业绩有望改善

Investment Rating - Outperform rating [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, with a stable position in the anode market and improving operational performance [3] - The company has a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, with key clients including SK on, Panasonic, LGES, Samsung SDI, CATL, BYD, and EVE Energy [7] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and overseas bases, with plans to increase its graphite self-sufficiency rate to around 50% in the long term [7] - The company is focusing on high-nickel ternary cathode materials, with a strong emphasis on low-cobalt, high-energy-density, and cost-effective products [4] - The company is diversifying its product portfolio by investing in new technologies such as silicon anodes, sodium-ion batteries, and other advanced battery materials [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 25.119 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.651 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28.50% [4] - The company's anode material shipments in 2023H1 exceeded 170,000 tons, with a domestic market share of approximately 26% and a global market share of around 25% [4] - The company's cathode material shipments in 2023H1 exceeded 19,000 tons, with a gross margin of 8.54% [4] - The company's gross margin for anode materials in 2023H1 was 21.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36 percentage points [4] - The company's gross margin for cathode materials in 2023H1 was 8.54%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.33 percentage points [4] Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has an annual production capacity of 495,000 tons for anode materials and 63,000 tons for high-nickel ternary cathode materials [7] - The company is constructing a silicon-based anode production facility in Shenzhen, with a planned capacity of 15,000 tons per year, expected to be operational by 2024 [7] - The company is advancing the construction of an integrated anode material project in Indonesia with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons and a lithium battery cathode material project in Morocco with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 1.651 billion, RMB 1.774 billion, and RMB 2.142 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [7] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 1.48, RMB 1.59, and RMB 1.92 for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 14.5%, 14.5%, and 14.6% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6] - The company's ROE is expected to be 14.3%, 13.2%, and 13.7% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6] - The company's valuation is based on a 2024 PE range of 20-22x, with a fair value range of RMB 31.77-34.94 per share [7] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the lithium battery materials industry, with a strong focus on anode and cathode materials [4] - The company's anode material shipments are expected to reach 375,000 tons in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 20.0% in 2024 and 2025 [9] - The company's cathode material shipments are expected to reach 42,000 tons in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 2.4% in 2024 and 16.3% in 2025 [10] - The company's anode material gross margin is expected to be 21.0%, 18.0%, and 18.0% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [9] - The company's cathode material gross margin is expected to be 7.0%, 6.0%, and 6.0% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [10] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 25.119 billion, RMB 21.534 billion, and RMB 25.554 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6] - The company's net profit is expected to be RMB 1.651 billion, RMB 1.774 billion, and RMB 2.142 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6] - The company's total assets are projected to be RMB 295.38 billion, RMB 293.05 billion, and RMB 324.27 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [14] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to be 56.1%, 49.5%, and 47.6% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [13]