2024年《政府工作报告》解读之宏观篇：以进促稳，奋发有为

Risk Management Focus - The report emphasizes risk management in three key areas: real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions, advocating for a combination of existing problem resolution and new risk prevention measures[1] - In real estate, the report calls for optimizing policies to support reasonable financing needs across different types of real estate enterprises, with a focus on increasing the supply of affordable housing[1] - For local government debt, the report stresses a dual approach of short-term risk mitigation and long-term institutional development, including the implementation of comprehensive debt resolution plans[3] Financial Institution Stability - The report highlights the need for careful management of risks in small financial institutions, which currently face challenges such as weak operational capacity and poor asset quality[3] - As of December, the non-performing loan rates for city and rural commercial banks were 18 basis points and 144 basis points higher than their net interest margins, respectively, indicating significant financial strain[3] Economic Growth and Employment Targets - The economic growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%, consistent with the previous year, reflecting a balance between short-term employment promotion and long-term development goals[1] - The report aims for the creation of over 12 million new urban jobs, with an urban unemployment rate target of approximately 5.5%[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected at 4.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan from the previous year, with a deficit rate of 3.0%[1] - The report indicates that the central government will issue 1 trillion yuan in special bonds, primarily for major strategic projects, contributing to an overall budget deficit exceeding 11 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of 8.2%[1] Inflation and Energy Consumption Goals - The inflation target for 2024 is set at around 3%, maintaining consistency with previous years, while the expected GDP deflator is projected to rise to a midpoint of 2.3%[1] - The report sets a goal to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by approximately 2.5%, marking a return to quantifiable targets after a two-year absence[1]