Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.99 HKD based on a reasonable valuation of 160.1 billion HKD [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that China People's Insurance Group is significantly undervalued, with substantial room for price recovery in the future. The company is focusing on high-quality development amidst strict regulatory environments, which is expected to strengthen its advantages in property and health insurance while narrowing the relative disadvantage in life insurance [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China People's Insurance Group, established in 1949, is the first national insurance company in New China, with the Ministry of Finance holding 60.84% of its shares, providing a strong shareholder advantage [3][19]. - The company has evolved into a comprehensive insurance financial group, covering various sectors including property insurance, life insurance, reinsurance, asset management, and insurance technology [3][19]. Property Insurance Business - The property insurance segment is the main profit source, contributing 72.9% of the net profit in the first half of 2023. The company has maintained a leading position in the industry with a premium income of 515.8 billion CNY in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% from 2011 to 2023 [4][25][26]. - The average combined ratio (COR) for the property insurance business from 2011 to 2022 was 97.3%, outperforming the industry average of 99.0%, indicating superior underwriting profitability [4][29]. Life Insurance Business - The life insurance segment is improving, with the new business value (NBV) margin reaching 5.7% in the first half of 2023, narrowing the gap with leading competitors [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory guidance aimed at reducing liability costs, which will further enhance profitability in the life insurance sector [5][12]. Health Insurance Business - The health insurance segment has shown significant improvement, with net profit reaching 2.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2023, contributing 9.8% to the group's total profit [5][12]. - The company is actively expanding its internet business in health insurance, leveraging partnerships to capture market opportunities [5][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for operating revenue from 2023 to 2025 is 655.6 billion CNY, 694.6 billion CNY, and 735.6 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 6.0%, and 5.9% [6][14]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 21.9 billion CNY, 27.4 billion CNY, and 30.6 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 7.7% [6][14].
被显著低估的保险金融集团