TSP(300129) 国联证券·2024-03-16 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.61 CNY per share and a market value of 10.8 billion CNY [53][80] Core Views - The domestic wind power industry is at an inflection point, with the company expected to benefit from the recovery in demand [79][86] - The company's dual-sea strategy (offshore and overseas) is accelerating, with overseas revenue accounting for 53% of total revenue in 2022 [77][86] - The company's capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million tons by 2024, with new offshore wind bases in Guangdong and Yangzhou [77][86] Market Outlook - Domestic wind power demand is expected to recover, with a CAGR of 26% for new installations from 2023 to 2025 [79][86] - Offshore wind power is expected to enter an accelerated construction phase, with new installations projected to reach 6.5/10/17 GW from 2023 to 2025 [73][86] - The domestic tower and pile market is expected to exceed 73.5 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 26% from 2023 to 2025 [79] Company Capacity and Strategy - The company has a leading capacity of 220,000 tons in Xinjiang, with a favorable competitive environment [17][86] - The Yangzhou base, with a capacity of 250,000 tons, has started production and is expected to enhance the company's export competitiveness [18][26] - The company plans to build a new offshore wind base in Guangdong with a capacity of 300,000 tons, further improving its offshore wind layout [18][86] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023Q1-Q3 was 2.98 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, with a net profit of 236 million CNY, up 41.8% year-on-year [79][86] - The company's gross margin for tower business reached 20% in 2023H1, leading the industry [21][22] - Overseas revenue in 2022 was 1.66 billion CNY, accounting for 53% of total revenue, with overseas orders in hand and new orders exceeding the total for 2022 [30][77] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to be 4.93/7.19/8.87 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025, with a CAGR of 75% [46][80] - The company's net profit is expected to be 290/638/888 million CNY from 2023 to 2025, with a CAGR of 75% [46][80] - The DCF valuation suggests a target price of 10.3 CNY per share, while the relative valuation suggests a target price of 11.61 CNY per share [47][53]