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运营效率提升,进入全面盈利时代
01024KUAISHOU(01024) 国金证券·2024-03-20 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Views - Kuaishou has entered a comprehensive profitability era with improved operational efficiency, achieving a revenue of 326 billion CNY in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 43.6 billion CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2] - For the full year 2023, Kuaishou reported a revenue of 1135 billion CNY, up 20% year-on-year, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 102.7 billion CNY, also a turnaround from losses [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the gross margin improved to 53.1%, an increase of 7.59 percentage points year-on-year and 1.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating expenses were optimized, with sales expenses at 102 billion CNY (31.3% of revenue), down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year; R&D expenses at 33 billion CNY (10.1% of revenue), down 2.06 percentage points year-on-year; and management expenses at 7.5 billion CNY (2.3% of revenue), down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Monthly active users reached 700 million, with daily active users at 380 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 4.5% respectively [2] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing revenue in Q4 2023 was 182 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [2] - E-commerce GMV reached 403.9 billion CNY in Q4 2023, up 29% year-on-year, with monthly paying users exceeding 130 million [2] - Live streaming revenue remained stable at 100 billion CNY in Q4 2023, indicating a healthy development phase [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Non-IFRS net profits of 161 billion CNY, 240 billion CNY, and 308 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to Non-IFRS P/E ratios of 12.8, 8.6, and 6.7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]