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BIGO稳步复苏;短期百度取消YY直播交易影响投资情绪,维持中性
YYJOYY(YY) 交银国际证券·2024-03-20 16:00

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for YY US with a target price of 37,implyingapotentialupsideof10.937, implying a potential upside of 10.9% [1][2] Core Views - YY's Q4 2023 revenue of 570 million slightly exceeded expectations by 2%, with adjusted net profit of 64million,up2864 million, up 28% YoY [2] - BIGO segment showed steady recovery with 3% YoY revenue growth in Q4 2023, driven by 8% YoY growth in paying users [2] - Management guided Q1 2024 revenue of 543-560 million, 5% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - 2024 BIGO revenue growth is expected to be 6%, partially offset by adjustments in the voice business [2] - The termination of the YY Live deal with Baidu has negatively impacted investor sentiment [2] Financial Performance - YY's 2023 revenue declined 6% YoY to 2.268billion,witha1.42.268 billion, with a 1.4% growth expected in 2024 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was 293 million, with a forecasted decline of 8% to 270millionin2024[5]BIGOLiveMAUgrew4270 million in 2024 [5] - BIGO Live MAU grew 4% YoY in Q4 2023, with strong growth in Middle East (+13%), Europe (+11%), and Japan/Korea/Australia/New Zealand (+8%) [2][6] - Likee MAU declined 14% YoY in Q4 2023, but ad revenue surged nearly 2.5x for the full year [2] - Hago achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in 2023 [2] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - Target price revised down to 37 from 39basedona10yearDCFmodel,implyinga2024P/Eof8x[2]YYreturned39 based on a 10-year DCF model, implying a 2024 P/E of 8x [2] - YY returned 355 million to shareholders in 2023 through dividends and buybacks, representing 122% of adjusted net profit [2] - Over $500 million in buyback capacity remains as of the report date [2] Industry Context - YY is categorized under the entertainment content sub-sector, alongside peers like Bilibili, Kuaishou, and Tencent Music [11] - The report covers a broad range of internet and education companies, with most receiving Buy ratings [11]