煤电一体化凸显业绩韧性，成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price suggesting a potential upside of 15% or more relative to the benchmark index within 6 months [13][10] Core Views - The company's coal-power integration strategy has demonstrated resilience, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 12.84 billion, a 7.01% YoY increase, and net profit of RMB 2.109 billion, up 1.57% YoY [8] - The company's coal business achieved revenue of RMB 10.85 billion, up 8.96% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 3.95 billion, a 1.94% increase [28] - The power segment generated revenue of RMB 4.06 billion, down 3.03% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 920 million, a 2.5% decrease [9] Financial Performance - 2023 coal production was 21.4 million tons, down 3.76% YoY, while commercial coal sales reached 19.69 million tons, up 8.7% YoY [9] - The company's comprehensive coal price was RMB 551/ton, up 0.2% YoY, with a cost of RMB 351/ton, up 5% YoY, resulting in a gross margin of RMB 200/ton, down 7.1% [9] - Power generation in 2023 was 10.48 billion kWh, down 2.6% YoY, with an average grid price of RMB 0.4098/kWh, up 0.4% [9] Growth Prospects - The company has a total coal-power installed capacity of 3,290MW, with an equity capacity of 1,732MW, and is constructing the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant with 1,320MW capacity [10] - Future projects include Shangrao, Chuzhou, and Liuan power plants, totaling 7,250MW in planned capacity [10] - The company plans to distribute RMB 389 million in cash dividends for 2023, representing a payout ratio of 18.4% [10] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 12.845 billion in 2023 to RMB 17.001 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.8% [12] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.109 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.082 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.5% [12] - The P/E ratio is forecast to decline from 9.8x in 2023 to 6.7x in 2026, while the P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.5x to 1.0x over the same period [12] Valuation - The company's current market capitalization is RMB 20.698 billion, with a share price of RMB 7.99 as of March 20, 2024 [13] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 6.6x in 2023 to 5.3x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [23]