Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Intron Tech with a new target price (TP) of HK$5.53, based on a 12x FY24E P/E valuation methodology [13][14][21]. Core Insights - Intron's FY23 revenue was RMB 5.8 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year (YoY) growth, while net income decreased by 23.5% YoY to RMB 317 million. The gross profit margin (GPM) was 18.7%, down 2.8 percentage points YoY, attributed to intensified price competition [21][32]. - The company expects solid growth in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) and Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) segments, driven by increasing demand and export opportunities in China. However, margin pressure may persist due to heightened competition [21][32]. - The report highlights a significant increase in R&D expenses, which reached 9.0% of revenue due to talent recruitment and upfront investments. Management anticipates a normalization of these expenses in FY24E [21][32]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,975 million in FY24E to RMB 10,805 million in FY26E, with a YoY growth rate of 20.2% in FY24E and 24.2% in FY25E [21][26]. - The breakdown of revenue by segment shows strong growth in New Energy (131.6% YoY in 2021, 91.0% in 2022) and Automation & Connectivity (151.3% YoY in 2022) [21][26]. Earnings Summary - The earnings forecast for FY24E includes a revenue estimate of RMB 6,975 million, a gross profit of RMB 1,298 million, and a net profit of RMB 441 million, indicating a 39% YoY growth in net profit [21][26][32]. - The report notes that the EPS for FY24E is expected to be RMB 0.41, with a consensus estimate of RMB 0.55 for FY25E [21][26]. Valuation Metrics - Intron is currently trading at 4.5x FY24E P/E, significantly lower than the average P/E of 22.8x for its peers, indicating that it is undervalued [14][21]. - The report emphasizes the attractive risk/reward profile of Intron, especially in light of potential catalysts such as favorable NEV policies and increasing penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [14][21].
FY23 mostly in-line; Expect easing headwinds in FY24E