Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's overall revenue and profits exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in domestic GMV, record-high monetization rates, and impressive performance from the overseas business Temu [2] - Online marketing service revenue grew robustly, and transaction commission revenue significantly surpassed expectations [6] - The company's operating leverage improved, leading to a substantial release of overall profits, with Non-GAAP net profit far exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] Financial Performance - In 2023Q4, the company achieved revenue of RMB 88.9 billion (YoY +123%, QoQ +29%), gross profit of RMB 53.8 billion (YoY +74%, QoQ +28%), operating profit of RMB 22.4 billion (YoY +146%, QoQ +34%), and net profit of RMB 23.3 billion (YoY +146%, QoQ +50%) [1][12] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 25.5 billion (YoY +110%, QoQ +50%) [1][12] - Gross margin was 60.5%, operating margin was 25.2%, net profit margin was 26.2%, and Non-GAAP net profit margin was 28.7% [15] Business Segments - Online marketing services and other revenue reached RMB 48.7 billion (YoY +57%, QoQ +23%), exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of RMB 46 billion [6][34] - Transaction commission revenue was RMB 40.2 billion (YoY +357%, QoQ +38%), significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 34.2 billion [6][34] - The domestic main platform's GMV grew by 25% YoY in 2023Q4, with the commission monetization rate increasing to 0.9% [37] - Temu, the overseas business, contributed approximately RMB 24.5 billion in revenue in 2023Q4, with GMV reaching RMB 59 billion and a monetization rate of 42% [38] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 4,004 billion, RMB 5,491 billion, and RMB 6,701 billion, respectively [41] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1,007 billion, RMB 1,396 billion, and RMB 1,710 billion, respectively [41] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 1,116 billion, RMB 1,573 billion, and RMB 1,926 billion, respectively [41] - The target market capitalization for 2024 is RMB 18,563 billion, with a target price of 122.30 as of March 21, 2024, with a 52-week range of 151.33 [6] - The company's market capitalization was $162.486 billion [6]
2023Q4财报点评：营收利润大超预期，海外业务增长强劲