MEITUAN(03690) 开源证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [13] Core Views - The report indicates that the home delivery business is expected to show steady growth, while the in-store profit margin is likely to stabilize. New businesses are anticipated to significantly reduce losses, driving profit release [24][25] - The forecast for non-IFRS net profit has been adjusted to 31.7 billion, 44.4 billion, and 61.6 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.4%, 40.0%, and 38.7% [14][15] Summary by Sections Home Delivery Business - The home delivery business is projected to maintain steady growth in order volume, although the average order value may decline due to macroeconomic factors. Profit margins are expected to slightly decrease, with future focus on consumer recovery to drive order growth and potential upward revisions in average order value [2][24] In-store Business - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the post-redemption GTV performance in the in-store business for 2024. Profit margins are expected to stabilize, and a clearer market structure may restore operational profit margins, boosting market confidence [2][24] New Businesses - The community group buying business will prioritize user experience over market share expansion, aiming to reduce losses through increased average order value and reduced subsidies. Other new businesses are expected to reach breakeven [2][24] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 327.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 31.7 billion, reflecting a 36.4% increase [15][14] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including diluted EPS of 5.1, 7.1, and 9.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 11.8, and 8.5 [15][14]