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成本优势保障经营韧性,产储量再创新高凸显未来空间
600938CNOOC(600938) 长江证券·2024-03-26 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [26][27]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 416.609 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 123.843 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][6][24]. - The company achieved record high oil and gas net production, with an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, exceeding its annual production target [24]. - The average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 was 82.17perbarrel,adecreaseof17.0782.17 per barrel, a decrease of 17.07% year-on-year, but the company's performance decline was less than the drop in oil prices [24][25]. - The company emphasizes cost control and efficiency improvements, with major cost advantages highlighted, as the average cost per barrel was 28.83, down 5.13% year-on-year [6][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 416.609 billion yuan, with a net profit of 123.843 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.6% [4][6]. - The company paid a total dividend of 1.25 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 44% [4][7]. Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures throughout exploration, development, and production, establishing a competitive cost advantage in the industry [6][24]. - The main operational cost was 28.83perbarrel,withsignificantreductionsinvariouscostcomponents,includingoperatingexpensesanddepreciation[6][24].FutureOutlookThecompanyanticipatesthatoilpriceswillstabilizebetween28.83 per barrel, with significant reductions in various cost components, including operating expenses and depreciation [6][24]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that oil prices will stabilize between 80 and $100 per barrel, with potential for further increases depending on geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production agreements [25]. - Projected net production targets for 2024-2026 are set at 700-720 million, 780-800 million, and 810-830 million barrels of oil equivalent, indicating steady growth [25]. Valuation - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.83 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.26 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.68X, 8.75X, and 8.38X [26].