BATIAN(002170) 国海证券·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in performance due to the expansion of phosphate rock production capacity to 2 million tons per year, which will enhance its profitability and market position [4][10]. - The demand for phosphate rock is anticipated to remain stable, driven by the increasing focus on food security and the growing area of grain cultivation in China, alongside the rising demand from the lithium iron phosphate battery sector [3][10]. - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.02% in phosphate rock demand from 2023 to 2026, with operating rates expected to be 89.9%, 86.5%, and 80.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 240-260 million yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.99%-114.48% [6]. - The estimated net profit for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 625 million yuan and 783 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.4 and 6.7 [7][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 3,145 million yuan in 2023 to 4,327 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [8][24]. Market Data - As of March 26, 2024, the company's stock price is 5.93 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 5.28 billion yuan [2][24]. - The stock has shown a performance of 21.0% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.6% [2]. Production Capacity - The company has received approval to increase the production capacity of its Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine from 900,000 tons per year to 2 million tons per year, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities and operational efficiency [9][10].