以餐饮门店为轴，月饼和预制菜驶入发展快车道

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.10 CNY per share based on a 19x PE for 2024 [1][47][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 542 million, 721 million, and 907 million CNY for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4%, 33%, and 26% [1][47]. - The recovery of the restaurant industry post-pandemic and the company's strategic "one core and three wings" capacity expansion plan are key drivers for growth [1][47]. - The company has shown resilience during the pandemic, with a revenue of 4.11 billion CNY in 2022, a 5.72% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million CNY, despite a 6.68% decline [10][22]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 4.90 billion, 5.59 billion, and 6.39 billion CNY, with growth rates of 19%, 14%, and 14% respectively [2][71]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.95, 1.27, and 1.59 CNY for 2023, 2024, and 2025 [2][71]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 18.2 in 2023 to 10.8 in 2025 [2][71]. Business Segments - The restaurant business is projected to grow at rates of 35%, 15%, and 15% for 2023, 2024, and 2025, with gross margins of 7%, 11%, and 11.5% respectively [26][45]. - The mooncake segment is expected to see sales volume growth of 11%, 2%, and 5% from 2023 to 2025, with revenue growth of 11.56%, 2.51%, and 6.05% [26][44]. - The frozen food segment is anticipated to grow by 20.65%, 27.69%, and 22.13% in revenue from 2023 to 2025, benefiting from increased consumer demand for pre-prepared meals [26][68]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the resilience of the restaurant industry, with a projected 20.4% year-on-year growth in restaurant revenue for 2023 [12][22]. - The company is expanding its market presence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and other coastal cities, leveraging the recovery phase of the industry [14][22]. - The frozen food market is expected to benefit from a growing consumer preference for convenience, with the market size projected to reach 10,720 billion CNY by 2026 [62][68].