CMES(SH:601872)2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 4.837 billion yuan for 2023, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 1.079 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [1] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 40% from 30.35% in 2022, leading to a higher effective tax rate in Q4, which rose to 19% compared to 5.8% in the first three quarters [1] - The oil tanker segment showed significant growth, with a gross profit of 3.837 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.083 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 249.2% [1] - The dry bulk shipping segment's net profit reached 899 million yuan, down 58.4% year-on-year, with an average TCE of 17,000 USD/day [1] - The roll-on/roll-off transport segment achieved a net profit of 266 million yuan, up 206.4% year-on-year, supported by the deployment of five vessels on international routes [1] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in asset prices and the potential for a new pricing cycle in the oil transportation sector, with VLCC prices increasing by 12% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2024, driven by increasing demand for bauxite and other non-mainstream minerals [1] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 8.528 billion yuan, 10.048 billion yuan, and 10.221 billion yuan respectively [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 25.881 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of 27.799 billion yuan for 2024 [3][10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 25.9%, with a projected increase to 36.8% in 2024 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 13.1%, with expectations of 19.6% in 2024 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.59 yuan, projected to rise to 1.05 yuan in 2024 [3]