NONGFU SPRING(09633) 光大证券·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [4] Core Views - Nongfu Spring achieved revenue of RMB 42.667 billion in 2023, a YoY increase of 28.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.079 billion, a YoY increase of 42.2% [4] - In H2 2023, revenue reached RMB 22.2 billion, a YoY increase of 33.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.3 billion, a YoY increase of 62.2% [4] - The company's tea beverage segment showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 83.3% YoY in 2023, driven by the success of the "Oriental Leaf" product line [5][7] - The company's gross margin improved to 59.5% in 2023, up 2.1 percentage points YoY, due to lower costs for packaging materials and some raw materials [6] - The company's net profit margin reached 28.3% in 2023, up 2.8 percentage points YoY, driven by cost optimization and improved operational efficiency [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 42.667 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 12.079 billion, a YoY increase of 42.2% [4] - Gross margin for 2023 was 59.5%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY [6] - Net profit margin for 2023 was 28.3%, up 2.8 percentage points YoY [6] - The company's EPS for 2023 was RMB 1.07 [8] Segment Performance - Tea beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 12.659 billion, a YoY increase of 83.3%, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [5] - Packaged water revenue in 2023 was RMB 20.262 billion, a YoY increase of 10.9%, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue [5] - Functional beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 4.902 billion, a YoY increase of 27.7%, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue [5] - Juice beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 3.533 billion, a YoY increase of 22.7%, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue [5] - Other products revenue in 2023 was RMB 1.311 billion, a YoY decrease of 3.1%, accounting for 3.0% of total revenue [5] Future Outlook - The company expects stable gross margins in H1 2024, with continued monitoring of raw material prices [6] - The company's "Oriental Leaf" product line is expected to maintain strong growth, benefiting from the trend towards healthier, sugar-free beverages [7] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised upwards to RMB 12.923 billion, RMB 14.536 billion, and RMB 16.224 billion, respectively [7] - The current stock price implies a 2024-2026 PE ratio of 33x, 29x, and 26x, respectively [7] Market Data - Total market capitalization is HKD 463.917 billion [2] - The stock's 52-week high/low is HKD 46.75/HKD 37.95 [2] - The 3-month turnover rate is 5.81% [2]