VANKE(000002) 国泰君安·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Vanke A, with a target price of 11.53 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 25.40 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - In 2023, Vanke A reported a revenue of 465.74 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.16 billion CNY, down 46.4% year-on-year. The EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 0.74 CNY and 0.82 CNY respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 0.65 CNY [2][3]. - The company has faced a significant decline in profit margins, with the net profit margin dropping to 2.6% in 2023, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. If the asset impairment losses of 3.49 billion CNY are excluded, the estimated net profit margin would be 2.9% [2][3]. - The company has decided not to distribute dividends or issue bonus shares in 2023 to preserve cash during the industry adjustment period [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 465.74 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 343.83 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 26% decrease [3]. - Operating profit (EBIT) for 2023 was 29.93 billion CNY, down 41% from the previous year, with a projected EBIT of 29.52 billion CNY in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 12.16 billion CNY, with projections of 8.86 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a 27% decline [3]. - The company’s operating profit margin for 2023 was 6.4%, down from 10.0% in 2022, with expectations of recovery to 8.6% in 2024 [3]. Operational Insights - The company’s new construction plans for 2024 have been reduced by 37.2%, and completion plans have decreased by 29.6% [2]. - The area under construction in 2023 was approximately 17.06 million square meters, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, while the completed area was about 31.34 million square meters, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year [2]. Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks was between 9.05 CNY and 16.05 CNY, with a current market capitalization of 110.24 billion CNY [5][8]. - The average daily trading volume was 106.50 million shares, with an average daily trading value of 1,029.13 million CNY [5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2023 is 9.06, with projections of 12.44 for 2024 [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 0.4, indicating a potential undervaluation [5]. Conclusion - The report indicates that Vanke A is actively addressing operational challenges and is supported by various local state-owned enterprises, which may provide a buffer during this adjustment period [2].