KEEP(03650) 国信证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.3% in 2023, with significant improvements in adjusted net profit loss. The average monthly active users (MAU) decreased by 18.2% to 29.76 million, but the paid penetration rate increased from 10.0% to 10.7%, and the average revenue per user grew by 17.6% [1][12] - The company is expanding into outdoor equipment and course content, which is expected to drive revenue and gross margin growth in the consumer goods segment [12] - Due to a continued weak recovery in the industry and planned increases in expenditure, the profit forecast has been adjusted downwards for 2024-2026 [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 2.138 billion yuan, down from 2.212 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a 3.3% decrease. The adjusted net profit loss was 295 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 667 million yuan in 2022 [2][13] - The gross margin for 2023 was 45.0%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year. The company managed to reduce its expense ratio by 9 percentage points [1][12] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 22.7 billion yuan, 24.0 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.0%, 5.9%, and 5.1% [7][12] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are -2.4 billion yuan, -0.5 billion yuan, and +0.3 billion yuan, indicating a gradual improvement towards profitability [7][12] Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted to 4.6-4.9 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 0.95-1.0x for 2024, reflecting a downward revision due to lower expected revenue growth and net profit margins [9][12]