盈利短期承压，二季度行业景气度有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the price of photovoltaic components has been declining since the second half of 2023, with significant drops in prices for TOPCon182mm and PERC182mm components by 39% and 34% respectively compared to July 2023 [2][3] - The report forecasts a potential stabilization in component prices as inventory levels are gradually being digested, with expectations for increased demand in the upcoming traditional peak season for photovoltaic components [3][8] - The company's profit forecast has been revised downwards due to declining profitability in integrated components, with projected net profits for 2023-2025 at 76.2 billion, 36.0 billion, and 50.6 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of +37.7%, -52.7%, and +40.4% [3][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global new photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 480 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the photovoltaic industry is intensifying, with the market share of the top five manufacturers decreasing from 58% in 2021 to 40% in 2023, leading to increased competition and potential profit declines for integrated companies [4][5] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 599.81 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.61%, with a net profit of 67.65 billion, up 105.62% [11] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been on the rise due to high demand and capacity utilization in the photovoltaic sector [11] Financial Projections - The report projects the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 772.3 billion, 789.7 billion, and 943.7 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 76.2 billion, 36.0 billion, and 50.6 billion [17][18] - The average selling price of components is expected to decline significantly, impacting profit margins, with projected gross margins of 19.4%, 14.3%, 14.7%, and 14.6% for 2023-2026 [14][18]