风机盈利拐点已现，在手订单与风资源增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant decline in net profit by 44.16% year-on-year, but revenue increased by 8.66% to RMB 50.46 billion in 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.33 billion, with a notable increase in Q4 2023 net profit by 277.61% year-on-year and 644.38% quarter-on-quarter [3][5] - The company has a stable wind turbine sales volume, with a total of 13.77 GW sold in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.71% year-on-year. The sales of units of 6 MW and above increased by 29.36% to 6.15 GW, indicating a trend towards larger units [3][6] - The company’s order backlog reached 30.40 GW by the end of 2023, a growth of 12.13% compared to the end of 2022, which supports future growth [3] - The gross margin for the wind turbine and components sales segment improved by 0.18 percentage points to 6.41% in 2023, with a significant improvement in the second half of the year [3][6] - The wind power service segment saw a revenue decline of 7.18% to RMB 5.24 billion, but the after-service revenue increased by 22.19% to RMB 3.03 billion, indicating diversification in service offerings [3][6] - The wind farm development business revenue surged by 57.96% to RMB 10.91 billion, although the gross margin decreased by 18.09 percentage points to 47.30% due to the implementation of a productized sales model [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 50.46 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 44.16% [3][5] - The EBITDA for 2023 was RMB 1.72 billion, down from RMB 4.01 billion in 2022 [6][7] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 0.32, a decrease of 44.67% compared to the previous year [5][7] Revenue Breakdown - Wind turbine sales accounted for a total of 13.77 GW, with a slight decrease of 0.71% year-on-year, while larger units (6 MW and above) saw a 29.36% increase [3][6] - The wind power service revenue was RMB 5.24 billion, down 7.18%, but after-service revenue grew by 22.19% to RMB 3.03 billion [3][6] - Wind farm development revenue increased by 57.96% to RMB 10.91 billion, despite a decrease in gross margin [3][6] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting EPS of RMB 0.51, RMB 0.62, and RMB 0.75 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.5, 12.8, and 10.6 [3][6] - The order backlog and growth in larger wind turbine sales are expected to support stable growth moving forward [3][6]