GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 国信证券·2024-04-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved breakthroughs in its lithium resource projects, with several projects expected to ramp up production in the near future [3] - The company has built a closed-loop lithium ecosystem, with significant progress in upstream lithium resources, midstream lithium salt processing, and downstream lithium battery business [3][9] - The company's lithium battery business is expected to reach an effective annual production capacity of 20GWh by the end of this year [3][13] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 32,972 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.16%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4,947 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.87% [3][5] - The company's Q4 2023 performance was significantly impacted by a sharp decline in lithium salt prices and high-cost inventory, resulting in a net loss of 1,063 million yuan [5] - The company's non-recurring gains and losses in 2023 amounted to 2,271 million yuan, including government subsidies of 1,536 million yuan and fair value change gains of 784 million yuan [8] Lithium Resource Projects - The Mt Marion project in Australia is gradually releasing its 900,000 tons/year lithium spodumene concentrate capacity [9] - The Cauchari lithium brine project in Argentina, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate, is expected to reach design capacity in 2024 [9] - The Mariana lithium brine project in Argentina is progressing smoothly, with the first batch of products expected by the end of 2024 [9] - The Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali, with an annual production capacity of 506,000 tons, is expected to start production in 2024 [9] Lithium Battery Business - The company has established lithium battery R&D and production bases in multiple locations, including Xinyu, Dongguan, Ningbo, Suzhou, Huizhou, and Chongqing [3][13] - The company's solid-state battery production base in Chongqing has completed phase one construction, with solid-state battery packs already delivered [13] - The company has delivered over 100 large-scale energy storage projects, with a total application scale exceeding 11,000MWh [13] Lithium Battery Recycling - The company has built multiple recycling bases in Jiangxi and Sichuan, with a comprehensive recycling capacity of 200,000 tons for retired lithium-ion batteries and metal waste [13] - The company plans to expand its lithium battery recycling capacity, with a goal of having 30% of its total lithium extraction capacity come from recycling by 2030 [13] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts revenue of 27,170/33,831/40,504 million yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.6%/24.5%/19.7% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4,436/5,882/6,920 million yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.3%/32.6%/17.6% [3] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 2.20/2.92/3.43 yuan for 2024-2026, with a current PE ratio of 18/14/12X [3]