2024年二季度银行股投资策略：高股息稳健，高成长跑出超额收益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Overweight" (maintained rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that market expectations regarding policies and the economy will shift positively in the second quarter, aided by improved overseas liquidity, which is expected to boost A-share valuations and enhance absolute returns in the banking sector [4][6] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth banks with strong performance certainty, while also recommending high-dividend strategies for long-term investors seeking stable returns [4][8] - The report highlights that the banking sector is currently under pressure, with a significant decline in valuations for high-growth banks, which have dropped from a premium of approximately 150% at the beginning of 2023 to about 40% currently [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report indicates that the banking sector is likely to achieve absolute returns in the second quarter, despite not being in a strong recovery environment. The manufacturing PMI for March recorded 50.8, and PPI declines have narrowed, suggesting better-than-expected economic performance [6][8] - The report notes that while the macroeconomic environment is improving, the risk appetite remains low, making the banking sector's defensive attributes appealing [6][9] Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks, particularly among smaller banks with solid fundamentals, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Zhejiang Commercial Bank, and Jiangsu Bank [4][11] - For investors seeking excess returns, the report suggests targeting high-growth banks with strong long-term prospects, including Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank, as well as distinctive small rural commercial banks like Changshu Bank [4][9][11] Performance Metrics - The report provides insights into the performance of various banks, indicating that the average return on equity (ROE) for high-growth banks has been under pressure, while high-dividend banks have seen a recovery in valuations [5][10] - The report emphasizes that the banking sector's net interest margin is expected to stabilize after the first quarter, with a projected decline in net interest margin narrowing, which is crucial for the sustainable operation of banks [7][9]