HGTECH(000988) 海通证券·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.208 billion yuan for the year 2023, a decrease of 15.01% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.007 billion yuan, an increase of 11.14% year-on-year. The operating cash flow significantly improved, reaching 1.478 billion yuan, up 155.16% year-on-year [4][6] - The sensing business experienced robust growth with a revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, up 40.02% year-on-year, while the connection business faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 45.52% [4][5] - The company has strengthened its cost control measures while increasing R&D investment by 32.51% year-on-year, reflecting its commitment to innovation and talent acquisition [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 10.208 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 15.01%. The net profit was 1.007 billion yuan, marking an 11.14% increase year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 23.11%, up 3.95 percentage points [4][6] - The operating cash flow was 1.478 billion yuan, significantly higher than the net profit level, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4] Business Segments - Sensing Business: Revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, up 40.02% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.99% [4] - Laser Holographic Anti-Counterfeiting: Revenue of 501 million yuan, down 12.63% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.01% [4] - Intelligent Manufacturing: Revenue of 3.190 billion yuan, down 3.00% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.93% [4] - Connection Business: Revenue of 3.110 billion yuan, down 45.52% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.47% [4] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 12.121 billion yuan, 13.952 billion yuan, and 15.489 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts are 1.318 billion yuan, 1.608 billion yuan, and 1.927 billion yuan for the same period [5][6] - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.31 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 1.92 yuan, respectively [5][6] Valuation - The company is assigned a dynamic PE range of 30-35X for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 39.31-45.87 yuan [5]