SINOHYTEC(688339) 长江证券·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenues of 764 million yuan in 2023 and 990 million yuan in 2024 [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 740-820 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%-11.1%, but net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -290 to -210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%-73.9% [2] - The fuel cell industry is in the early stages of commercialization, leading to significant fluctuations in operating performance [2] - Short-term losses are primarily due to high R&D and management expenses, as well as significant impairment losses [2] - The company's cash flow is expected to improve in 2024 with the first-year national subsidy distribution in demonstration city clusters [2] - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles is expected to accelerate, with potential turning points in applications such as buses and commercial vehicles [2] Market Performance and Industry Analysis - In 2023, the company's fuel cell system installed capacity was 165.7MW, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, maintaining the top market share [4] - The growth rate in 2023 was slightly lower due to the industry's reliance on government funding and slower promotion progress in some regions [4] - The price of fuel cell systems is expected to decline further, with a projected price drop of 24.1%-31.5% in 2023 [4] - The company's R&D and management expenses increased significantly, with a 39.62 percentage point year-on-year increase in the expense ratio in the first three quarters of 2023 [4] - The company's credit impairment losses increased by 56.408 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023 [4] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 738 million yuan in 2022 to 764 million yuan in 2023 and 990 million yuan in 2024 [31] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -242 million yuan in 2023 and -168 million yuan in 2024 [31] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight decline from 38% in 2022 to 37% in 2023 and 36% in 2024 [31] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to improve, with a projected net cash flow from operating activities of 55 million yuan in 2023 [31] Industry Outlook - The fuel cell vehicle market is expected to accelerate, with significant growth potential in key markets such as Beijing and Guangdong [18] - The proportion of fuel cell trucks in the market has increased to 79.1% in 2023, indicating growing market acceptance of fuel cell technology [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the continued growth of the fuel cell industry, with increasing single-vehicle power and improved product performance [18]