2024年3月外汇储备、黄金储备规模变化解读

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of March 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,245.7 billion, an increase of $19.8 billion from the end of February, representing a growth rate of 0.62%[1] - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a slight rise in the US dollar index by 0.36% in March, which led to an estimated valuation loss of about $5 billion on non-dollar assets[1] - The central bank's foreign exchange holdings have shown a continuous slight increase for six months from September 2023 to February 2024, indicating a potential for further expansion in March[1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March 2024, China's gold reserves reached 72.74 million ounces, up from 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increases[1] - The central bank's consistent accumulation of gold is driven by the need to preserve and enhance the value of reserve assets amid rising US Treasury yields[3] - The ongoing strategy to increase gold reserves aligns with the government's push for the internationalization of the Renminbi, as highlighted in recent policy meetings[3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite a significant drop in export growth rate due to last year's high base, there is an expectation of a continued recovery in foreign trade in the near term[2] - The anticipated easing of global financial conditions is expected to reduce the risk of significant declines in global capital markets, positively impacting China's foreign reserves[2] - The overall external situation for China is expected to stabilize, contributing to a controlled depreciation pressure on the Renminbi and maintaining foreign exchange reserves slightly above $3 trillion[2]