公司事件点评报告：营收端稳健增长，关注润盈订单落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Junyao Health (605388.SH) [2][3] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue growth with a total revenue of 1.634 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 66% increase, primarily driven by exclusive patented technologies and new product developments [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58 million yuan, a decrease of 25% due to the timing of the 2024 Spring Festival affecting Q4 sales [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for profit recovery in 2024, with expectations of improved gross margins as raw material costs decline [3] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for Q4 2023 was 278 million yuan, a 97% increase year-on-year, but the net profit was negative at -25 million yuan, compared to -2 million yuan in the same period of 2022 [2][3] - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 24.43% for the year and 22.91% for Q4, reflecting a decrease due to rising raw material costs and market fluctuations [2][3] - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 11.49% and 7.76%, respectively, both showing a reduction, which contributed to a net profit margin of 3.96% [2][3] Product and Market Performance - The report notes that the lactic acid beverage segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue of 580 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, due to market fatigue and increased competition [2][3] - The probiotic food segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 155 million yuan, up 206%, largely due to the consolidation of Runying [2][3] - The supply chain business contributed to new growth points, with revenue of 809 million yuan, a 463% increase, benefiting from improved business collaboration and standardization [2][3] Future Outlook - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.29, 0.40, and 0.54 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 20, and 15 times [3] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 400 million yuan for Runying in 2024, contingent on successful order fulfillment [2][3] - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the ambient lactic acid bacteria industry, enhanced by proprietary core functional strains [3]