BROAD HOMES-期待2025年复苏，维持“买入”

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating with a revised target price of HK $2.90, equivalent to 10.8x/8.0x/5.8x 2024/2025/2026 EV/EBITDA [10][16] Core Views - 2023 revenue was RMB 2.201 billion, down 1.4% YoY, with PC component manufacturing revenue at RMB 1.913 billion, down 5.5% YoY [2] - 2023 gross margin improved to 24.3%, up 7.6 percentage points, while expense ratio decreased to 33.9%, down 4.4 percentage points [2] - 2023 net operating cash flow increased to RMB 580 million, up from RMB 423 million in 2022, with combined net operating and investment cash flow at RMB 476 million [21] - 2023 new contract value reached RMB 2.969 billion, up 25.3% YoY, driven by a 35.9% increase in PC component manufacturing contracts [11] Financial Performance - 2023 net loss narrowed to RMB 389 million from RMB 808 million in 2022, with basic EPS improving to RMB -0.815 from RMB -1.677 [29] - 2024/2025/2026 EPS forecasts revised to RMB -0.217/RMB 0.037/RMB 0.393, respectively [10] - 2023 accounts receivable decreased by 5.8% to RMB 2.628 billion, with impairment losses down 95.3% to RMB 4 million [21] Business Highlights - Digital EPC revenue surged 871.3% YoY to RMB 160 million in 2023, reflecting strong growth in digital construction solutions [2] - The company implemented over ten digital full-assembly projects, including Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and Changde Economic Development Zone [11] - Expanded international market presence with over 300 overseas client engagements and 40+ projects in design and contract stages, including successful deployments of customized "Magic Cube" building products in Saudi Arabia and Los Angeles [11] Industry and Market Performance - The stock price declined 52.9% over the past year, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 34.1 percentage points [3] - Average share price over the past year ranged between HK$ 2.3 and HK$2.7 [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 3.875 billion by 2026, with net profit projected to reach RMB 187 million [29] - The company continues to focus on integrating digital technology with its CPS+ intelligent management platform to enhance efficiency in smart construction solutions [11]