JIN LEI(300443) 国联证券·2024-04-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.19 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [10][12]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.946 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 412 million CNY, up 16.85% year-on-year [7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 33.04%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 21.16%, up 1.71 percentage points [7][11]. - The company plans to invest 2.65 billion CNY to build a large-scale production capacity of 280,000 tons of high-end forgings, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the forging sector [8][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 610 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.65%, but a net profit of 85 million CNY, down 27.59% year-on-year [7]. - For Q1 2024, the company expects revenue to decline to 255 million CNY, a decrease of 41.56% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29 million CNY, down 70.80% year-on-year [11]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.694 billion CNY, 3.205 billion CNY, and 3.833 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 38.45%, 18.97%, and 19.59% [11][20]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.6 CNY, 2.0 CNY, and 2.4 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [11][20]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 11, 9, and 7 for the same years [11][20]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to reach 510 million CNY, 656 million CNY, and 796 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of 23.76%, 28.79%, and 21.24% [20].