CHINA MOBILE(600941) 民生证券·2024-04-25 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected relative benchmark index gains of over 5% [4][13] Core Views - The company's 24Q1 performance met expectations, with a 5.2% YoY increase in revenue to RMB 263.7 billion and an 8.4% YoY increase in non-GAAP net profit to RMB 26.1 billion [7] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and high-quality development, with stable growth expected in both revenue and profit for 2024 [7] - The company is increasing investment in AI computing centers, with AI server procurement exceeding that of competitors China Unicom and China Telecom [7] - Mobile and fixed-line user numbers showed growth in 24Q1, with mobile ARPU increasing to RMB 47.9 per user, up 6.7% from 23Q4 [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,009.3 billion in 2023A to RMB 1,288.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 8.7% [2][20] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to increase from RMB 131.8 billion in 2023A to RMB 167.7 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 10.0% [2][20] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 6.16 in 2023A to RMB 7.84 in 2026E [2][20] - ROE is expected to improve from 10.09% in 2023A to 11.57% in 2026E [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decline from 17x in 2023A to 13x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [2][20] - PB ratio is expected to decrease from 1.7x in 2023A to 1.5x in 2026E [2][20] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 6.09x in 2023A to 5.23x in 2026E [2] Operational Highlights - Mobile internet traffic increased by 3.3% YoY in 24Q1, with mobile internet DOU reaching 14.9GB [7] - DICT business revenue showed strong growth in 24Q1, driven by the company's focus on digital and intelligent services [7] - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease from RMB 180.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 173.0 billion in 2024, with a shift towards AI computing investments [7] Industry Trends - The company is leading in AI server procurement, with a total of 10,508 AI servers purchased for 2023-2025, surpassing competitors [7] - The company's 5G user base reached 799 million in 24Q1, with a 0.5% increase from 23Q4 [7] - Fixed-line broadband users grew to 305 million in 24Q1, up 2.3% from 23Q4 [7]