BCHT(688276) 华源证券·2024-04-25 10:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company holds the first domestically produced shingles vaccine, which presents a significant market potential due to the high burden of shingles disease in China, with over 1.5 million new cases annually [1][6]. - The competitive landscape for shingles vaccines in China is favorable, with the company being the only domestic producer currently in the market, while the global market is dominated by GSK's Shingrix vaccine [1][2][6]. - The company's shingles vaccine has a competitive edge in terms of safety, fewer doses required, and cost-effectiveness, targeting a price-sensitive demographic [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - Shingles disease has a substantial burden, with an incidence rate of 6-12 per 1,000 individuals aged 60 and above, leading to a potential vaccination population of over 600 million in China [1][6]. - The company’s shingles vaccine was approved in January 2023, priced at 1,369 yuan per dose, requiring only one dose compared to two for Shingrix, which is priced at 1,598 yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.825 billion yuan, a 70.3% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid uptake of the shingles vaccine [11][20]. - The report forecasts revenues of 2.56 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.65 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 40.2%, 21.4%, and 17.6% [4][17]. - Net profits are projected to reach 750 million, 890 million, and 1.04 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 49.4%, 18.6%, and 16.7% [4][17]. Competitive Analysis - The company’s shingles vaccine is expected to compete effectively against GSK's Shingrix, with a market strategy that targets different segments, focusing on price-sensitive consumers [2][6]. - The report highlights that the company’s vaccine is currently the only domestically produced option, which positions it favorably in a market that is still developing [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 25, 21, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [4][17]. - The report includes a comparative analysis with similar companies, noting that while the company’s valuation is higher, its unique market position and growth potential justify this premium [4][18].