至暗时刻已过，看好年内业绩逐季修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to 762 million and 1,028 million yuan, respectively, and an estimated net profit of 1,389 million yuan for 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 21, 15, and 11 times [2] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to recover quarter by quarter in 2024, driven by the normalization of European inventory and the release of demand in emerging markets such as Brazil and India [2] - The company's grid-tied inverter business saw a 42.99% YoY increase in revenue to 2.86 billion yuan in 2023, while the energy storage inverter business declined by 4.67% YoY due to slowing demand in Europe [2] - The residential distributed system business grew significantly, with revenue increasing by 688.9% YoY to 1.654 billion yuan in 2023, driven by lower component costs [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.353 billion yuan, a 56.1% YoY increase, and a net profit of 852 million yuan, up 31.2% YoY [2] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue decline of 34.5% YoY to 1.126 billion yuan and a net loss of 29 million yuan, a 108.6% YoY decrease [2] - The company's gross margin for grid-tied inverters remained stable at 29.43% in 2023, while the gross margin for energy storage inverters improved by 11.33 percentage points to 55.83% [2] Business Segments - The grid-tied inverter segment sold 532,200 units in 2023, generating 2.86 billion yuan in revenue [2] - The energy storage inverter segment sold 154,100 units in 2023, with revenue of 1.57 billion yuan [2] - The energy storage battery segment sold 341 MWh in 2023, generating 869 million yuan in revenue, a 38.66% YoY increase [2] Future Outlook - The company's residential system business is expected to continue improving profitability in 2024 due to low component prices [2] - The company's overall revenue is projected to grow to 8.649 billion yuan in 2024, 10.77 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.975 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit is forecasted to reach 762 million yuan in 2024, 1.028 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.389 billion yuan in 2026 [4]