2024年一季报点评：收入增长稳健，省外顺利扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company, indicating a projected investment return of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in Q1 2024, achieving a total revenue of 1.01 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 70 million yuan, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - The restaurant business is recovering steadily, with the company planning to continue opening direct stores and acquiring authorized restaurant outlets to expand its network. The food business is also actively developing new channels, particularly in East China [2][19]. - The company has multiple well-established brands and is expected to maintain steady growth as brand advantages are leveraged [19]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.81%, a decrease of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [13]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mooncake series generated 9.03 million yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, while the restaurant segment saw a revenue increase of 13.3% to 384 million yuan, driven by the opening of 14 new restaurant locations [18]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 6.48 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.27 billion yuan by 2026, with net profit expected to reach 855 million yuan in 2026 [4][14]. Market Expansion and Product Development - The company is expanding its food manufacturing capabilities with four production bases in Guangdong and Hunan, and is actively entering new retail channels such as Hema, Sam's Club, Costco, and others [2][25]. - The company reported a 13.69% year-on-year revenue increase from markets outside Guangdong, indicating successful expansion efforts [25]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16x, 14x, and 12x respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's valuation as it leverages its brand strength [19]. - The report indicates a dividend yield of 2.2% for 2024, increasing to 3.4% by 2026, suggesting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [19].