SHENYANG XINGQI PHARMACEUTICAL CO.(300573) 东方证券·2024-04-28 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xingqi Eye Drops with a target price of 288.11 CNY [3][5] Core Views - Revenue and net profit grew steadily in 2023, with revenue reaching 1.468 billion CNY (+17.42% YoY) and net profit reaching 240 million CNY (+13.39% YoY) [2] - The eye drop business showed strong growth, with revenue from eye drops reaching 663 million CNY (+47.86% YoY) [2] - The company's low-concentration atropine eye drop received approval, marking a first-mover advantage in the domestic market for myopia treatment in children [2] - R&D investment increased to 167 million CNY (+14.89% YoY), with 239 R&D personnel (+25.13% YoY) [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.74 billion CNY and issue a 4-for-10 stock dividend [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.77 billion CNY in 2024 (+88.7% YoY), 4.388 billion CNY in 2025 (+58.4% YoY), and 5.418 billion CNY in 2026 (+23.5% YoY) [6] - Net profit is projected to reach 584 million CNY in 2024 (+143.4% YoY), 881 million CNY in 2025 (+50.7% YoY), and 933 million CNY in 2026 (+6.0% YoY) [6] - EPS is forecasted to be 4.69 CNY in 2024, 7.07 CNY in 2025, and 7.49 CNY in 2026 [6] Valuation - The company's fair value is estimated at 35.895 billion CNY, with a target price of 288.11 CNY per share [8] - The WACC is calculated at 8.81%, with a terminal growth rate of 3.00% [7] Market Performance - The stock price as of April 26, 2024, was 261.6 CNY, with a 52-week range of 111.73 CNY to 266.66 CNY [5] - The stock showed strong performance over the past year, with a 111.28% increase in absolute terms and a 120.75% increase relative to the market [5] Industry and Company Overview - Xingqi Eye Drops operates in the pharmaceutical and biological industry in China [5] - The company has 57 approved ophthalmic drugs, with 35 included in the national medical insurance catalog and 6 in the national essential drug list [2]