焦煤回落压低盈利，烯烃后续盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][7]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.227 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.421 billion RMB, up 19.89% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in coking coal prices has led to a significant drop in profitability for the coking business segment, with coking coal prices down approximately 9% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s self-supply ratio of coking coal is about 50%, which has impacted the profitability of the coking business due to falling prices [2]. - The company’s olefin business has seen improved profitability due to lower coal prices, with benefits expected to be more pronounced in Q2 [2]. - The EVA project has begun production, achieving a monthly output of approximately 25,300 tons, and is expected to contribute to profitability in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.27 billion RMB, a 22.19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.21 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.89% growth [1]. Operational Analysis - The coking business faced profitability challenges due to falling coking coal prices, while the olefin segment benefited from lower coal prices, with significant improvements expected in Q2 [2]. - The EVA project is on track, with production expected to stabilize and contribute positively to earnings by Q4 2024 [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 38.757 billion RMB, 58.218 billion RMB, and 62.108 billion RMB, with net profits of 8.148 billion RMB, 14.076 billion RMB, and 15.677 billion RMB respectively [3]. - The expected EPS for the same period is 1.11 RMB, 1.92 RMB, and 2.14 RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 8, and 7 [3].