2024年财政政策探析：总量扩张，中央加力

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2024 aims for a deficit rate of 3.0%, maintaining the same level as last year, with a deficit scale of CNY 4.06 trillion, an increase of CNY 180 billion from last year[12] - The actual deficit scale is projected to exceed CNY 11 trillion, reflecting a significant increase of CNY 2.2 trillion compared to last year, resulting in an actual deficit rate of 8.2%, up by 1.2 percentage points[13] Government Spending and Investment - The government plans to issue CNY 3.9 trillion in new special bonds, an increase of CNY 100 billion from last year, to support effective investment and stabilize private investment[12] - Government fiscal subsidies are expected to stimulate additional consumption between CNY 250 billion and CNY 400 billion this year[3] Central vs. Local Government Dynamics - The central government is increasing its leverage, with the central deficit ratio rising to 82.3%, while local government debt pressures remain high, with a debt ratio of 346.5%[44][52] - Central government transfer payments to local governments are projected to reach CNY 10.2 trillion, a 4.1% increase from last year, to support local fiscal stability[53] Risk Management and Debt Control - The government emphasizes a dual approach to managing local debt risks, combining short-term measures with long-term institutional reforms[4] - The total space for local government debt issuance is estimated at CNY 1.43 trillion, with plans to issue special refinancing bonds between CNY 50 billion and CNY 100 billion this year[89] Taxation and Revenue Structure - The macro tax burden is projected to decrease to 16.8% of nominal GDP in 2024, the lowest level in nearly 20 years, indicating a need for structural optimization in revenue sources[61] - The government aims to enhance the precision and sustainability of tax reductions, focusing on supporting small and medium enterprises and boosting consumer spending[62]