LAO BAI GAN JIU(600559) 国泰君安·2024-04-29 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.10 CNY [1][4] - The target price corresponds to a 2024 PE ratio of 22X [1][4] Core Views - The company's reform logic has been realized, leading to profit release in 2023 [1][4] - The company's sales and management expense ratios decreased by 3.3pct and 0.6pct respectively in 2023 [1][4] - The net profit for 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 increased by 42.21% and 33.04% respectively, exceeding market expectations [1][4] - The company's product structure advantage and reform dividends are expected to drive further profit release [1][4][5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 5,257 million CNY, a 13% increase year-over-year [1][4] - The net profit for 2023 was 666 million CNY, a 6% decrease year-over-year [1][4] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.92 CNY, 1.12 CNY, and 1.31 CNY respectively [1][4] - The operating profit margin for 2023 was 16.0%, up from 14.0% in 2022 [1][4] Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from the company's core products, Laobaigan and Wulingjiu, increased by 10.0% and 28.2% respectively in 2023 [1][4] - Wulingjiu is driving the upward shift in the company's product structure [1][4] - The company's profit release is expected to accelerate due to its product structure depth and operational efficiency improvements [1][4][5] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for the A-share liquor industry is 31X for 2022, 26X for 2023, and 22X for 2024 [6] - The company's PE ratio is 26X for 2022, 27X for 2023, and 22X for 2024, aligning with industry averages [6]