Q1业绩符合预期，静待下游业务改善 推荐

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 results with operating revenue of 789.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144.31% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Significant progress in increasing reserves, production, and efficiency was noted, with upstream business showing notable improvement. The exploration and development, refining, and marketing segments achieved operating profits of 14.01 billion, 6.97 billion, and 8.00 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 9.0%, -33.0%, and 1.0% [3] - The downstream business faced pressure due to cost and supply factors, with a total crude oil processing volume of 63.30 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and total refined oil sales of 59.81 million tons, up 6.5% year-on-year [3] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 72.10% for 2023. The planned capital expenditure for 2024 is 173 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a decade [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3,373.63 billion, 3,402.61 billion, and 3,412.66 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 63.74 billion, 71.39 billion, and 75.98 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.42%, 12.00%, and 6.43% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 operating revenue was 789.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43% [3] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144.31% quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - Upstream exploration and development achieved significant improvements, with a production volume of 128.78 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [3] - The refining segment's performance declined, attributed to narrowing refining margins [3] - The chemical segment reported an operating loss of 1.56 billion yuan, with losses narrowing by 12.1% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase exploration efforts and enhance quality reserves, with a target production of 279.06 million barrels of crude oil and 1,379.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas for 2024 [3] - The refining segment aims to process 260 million tons of crude oil and produce 159 million tons of refined oil in 2024 [3] - The chemical business will focus on developing new advantages in cost, added value, and green low-carbon initiatives, with a production target of 14.35 million tons of ethylene [3]