Sinopec Corp.(600028) 光大证券·2024-04-29 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Sinopec (600028.SH/0386.HK) [2][15] Core Views - The Q1 performance shows significant improvement, with a total revenue of 790 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 18.3 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144% quarter-on-quarter [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, Sinopec's total revenue reached 790 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.3 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 144% [6][7]. Business Segment Analysis 1. Upstream Business: - The upstream segment achieved an EBITDA of 14.8 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year and 142% quarter-on-quarter, driven by ongoing efforts to increase reserves and production [8][11]. - Oil production was 70.36 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while natural gas production reached 350.46 billion cubic feet, up 6% year-on-year [8][11]. 2. Refining Business: - The refining segment reported an EBITDA of 6.9 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year but up 480% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to improved demand for refined products [9][10]. - The total crude oil processed was 63.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [9][10]. 3. Sales and Distribution: - The sales segment achieved an EBITDA of 8.7 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year and 210.6% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from integrated operations and market expansion efforts [10][11]. 4. Chemical Business: - The chemical segment reported an EBITDA of -1.6 billion yuan, a reduction in losses compared to previous periods, with production figures showing mixed results across various products [11][12]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2024, Sinopec's capital expenditure was 20.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with plans for a total capital expenditure of 173 billion yuan for the year [12][13]. - The company has initiated share buybacks, having repurchased 143.5 million A-shares and 44.35 million H-shares, reflecting confidence in future growth [13][14]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 70.4 billion, 75.2 billion, and 80.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58, 0.62, and 0.66 yuan per share [14][16].