BGE(603588) Soochow Securities·2024-04-30 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 504.64 million yuan, a decrease of 27.13% [11] - The first quarter of 2024 showed significant revenue growth of 80.10% year-on-year, reaching 3.125 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 5.95% [11] - The company is experiencing operational pressure in its resource utilization projects, primarily due to capacity ramp-up and technical upgrades affecting load and profitability [11] - The report predicts a recovery in performance as project operations improve, with a forecasted net profit of 9.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 12.9 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 84%, 19%, and 16% respectively [11] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10.58 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.74 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.82% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 504.64 million yuan in 2023 to 1.28557 billion yuan in 2026, with significant growth in 2024 [11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 0.84 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11] Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics - The operating cash flow for 2023 is projected to be negative at -953 million yuan, but is expected to improve significantly in 2024 with a positive cash flow of 128 million yuan [7] - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 20.29 in 2023 to 7.96 in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings improve [11] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 5.43% in 2023 to 10.17% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [7]