2024一季报点评：业绩超预期，利润率显著提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Qingdao Beer [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a significant improvement in profit margins [1][3] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products continues to increase, contributing to a rise in average selling price [3] - Raw material costs have decreased, and product structure upgrades have led to a substantial increase in gross margin [3] - The company is expected to maintain a steady sales rhythm with a focus on core product development and cost control, leading to profit growth outpacing revenue growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue reached 10.15 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [2][3] - The sales volume for Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-over-year, but the sales of mid-to-high-end products accounted for 44.0% of total sales, up 2.3 percentage points [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs and product upgrades [3] - The company expects a profit growth rate of 12% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 5.1 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]