JA SOLAR(002459) 国金证券·2024-04-30 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by asset impairment, but its channel and technological advantages are expected to support profit recovery [2] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 81.556 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.039 billion RMB, up 27.2% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to see growth in component shipments, with a target of 85-95GW for 2024 [3] - The company has faced pressure on profitability due to product price declines and has made prudent asset impairment provisions to ensure asset quality [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 15.971 billion RMB, down 22.0% year-on-year, and a net loss of 0.483 billion RMB, a decline of 118.7% year-on-year [2] - The company shipped 57.09GW of battery components in 2023, a 39.5% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2024 shipments at 16.059GW, an 11% increase year-on-year [2][3] Product and Market Position - The company has a leading position in TOPCon capacity and overseas channel layout, which is expected to support market share growth and profit recovery [3] - The company has established a global sales service network across 165 countries, with overseas shipments accounting for 48% in 2023, projected to rise to 62% in 2024 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 2.8 billion RMB (down 72%) and 3.9 billion RMB (down 68%), respectively, with a new forecast of 4.8 billion RMB for 2026 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 13, and 10 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]