AIA-2024年一季度最新情况点评：NBV超预期，新增20亿美元回购大超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong recovery in its performance, with a notable increase in New Business Value (NBV) and a new $2 billion share buyback plan that exceeded expectations [2]. - The company aims to return 75% of its annual free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a consistent dividend policy with annual growth [2]. - The NBV for Q1 2024 reached$ 13.27 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%, while the Annualized New Premium (ANP) was $24.49 billion, up 26% year-over-year [2]. - The NBV Margin (NBVM) increased by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2%, marking the first year-over-year growth since 2022, alleviating concerns about product structure changes [2]. - The company’s diverse distribution channels showed robust growth, with NBV from agents and partners increasing by 20% and 70% year-over-year, respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved an insurance revenue of$ 17.514 billion in 2023, with projected growth to $18.969 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year increase [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from$ 3.764 billion in 2023 to $6.144 billion in 2024, representing a 63.2% increase [9]. - The Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from$ 0.27 in 2023 to $0.43 in 2024 [9]. - The company’s investment performance is expected to improve, with net investment income projected to rise from$ 12.566 billion in 2023 to $14.769 billion in 2024 [9].