下调半导体行业预期，AI引领需求增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC [3] Core Views - TSMC's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $18.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.9$19.6 billion and $20.4 billion [1][2] - The semiconductor industry outlook has been downgraded, with TSMC lowering its 2024 growth forecast for the semiconductor industry (excluding memory) to 10$18.87 billion, with a gross margin of 53.1% and a net profit of 225.49 billion NTD, up 8.9% year-over-year [1] - TSMC's revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2,707.76 billion NTD, 3,299.10 billion NTD, and 3,849.43 billion NTD, representing year-over-year growth rates of 25%, 22%, and 17% respectively [2][7] - The company expects net profits of 1,010.27 billion NTD, 1,279.17 billion NTD, and 1,508.82 billion NTD for the same periods, with growth rates of 21%, 27%, and 18% respectively [2][7] Market Demand - TSMC's Q1 2024 revenue breakdown by application shows HPC at 46%, smartphones at 38%, IoT at 6%, automotive at 6%, and digital consumer electronics at 2% [1] - AI-related data center demand is strong, while smartphone demand is recovering slowly, and traditional server demand remains lukewarm [1][2] Technology and Production - Advanced process technology now accounts for 65% of TSMC's wafer revenue, with 3nm and 5nm products contributing 9% and 37% respectively in Q1 2024 [1] - TSMC anticipates that 3nm revenue will double in 2024, with a target of 15% contribution to total revenue [1][2] Investment Outlook - The target price for TSMC is set at $154, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 estimates [2] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI computing demand and the significant growth opportunities in AI edge devices [2]